Lens 2 · Monte Carlo — the odds
Where could the price go?
pctile
{{lab1}}
{{lab3}}
95th
{{a95}}
{{b95}}
75th
{{a75}}
{{b75}}
median
{{a50}}
{{b50}}
25th
{{a25}}
{{b25}}
5th
{{a5}}
{{b5}}
Resolves {{resolve1}} and {{resolve3}}. The published percentiles from the 50,000-path engine — not re-derived here.
Chance of touching a level
level
{{lab1}}
{{lab3}}
{{row.lvl}}
{{row.p1}}
{{row.p3}}
Lens 3 · Fundamental — the study
What is it worth?
{{bearLab2}}{{fullLab2}}
The study values the business between {{bearPlain}} and {{fullPlain}}, centring on {{basePlain}}. Valuation runs on its own clock — it changes only when a new edition is published, not when the price moves.