Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Apple trades well above our weighted central fair value — richly valued on every fundamental lens. It is the highest-quality cash machine in technology: an iPhone-led hardware franchise (iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables) wrapped around a fast-growing, high-margin Services layer (App Store, licensing, iCloud, advertising, payments). On modelled cash flows the consolidated DCF is near $152 and the segment sum-of-the-parts near $184; forward multiples ($249) and normalized earnings ($253) sit higher, and the roughly $90 gap between the two families is the durability premium — the installed base, switching costs and Services annuity the explicit five-year model does not capitalise. The bull case needs Services to keep compounding and an AI-led iPhone upgrade cycle to land; the cautious case is a regulated Services take-rate and flat hardware as the multiple de-rates. Over three months the distribution is near-even on direction with a mild downside tilt from event skew — not a view that the shares are cheap or expensive, just where price could travel from here.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the Services/AI-cycle drift, iPhone & hardware volumes, gross-margin mix, Nasdaq/high-beta flows, US real rates and FX — plus event forces: an AI-upgrade/WWDC catalyst, a Services-growth print, a quarterly earnings/margin print, a capital-return refresh, a China demand/share shock, an App Store/antitrust ruling and the Google traffic-acquisition outcome. Zero secular drift (international name); the mild downside tilt is event skew, not a valuation view.