Were we right?

Every forecast is saved with its date. When the date arrives, the real price goes next to what we said — right or wrong, nothing deleted. The tally first; the rules below it.

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resolved 3-month windows checked

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inside the 90% band

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covered names, each with its own public record

forecasts deleted or rewritten. Ever.

Market	Names	Windows	Inside the 90% band

Graded so far

Name	Horizon	Said (p5–p95)	Real close	Result

The live ledger — forecasts awaiting their date

showing …

Published cones whose check date hasn’t arrived yet. Each will be graded on the real close of its date — projected dates use the exchange’s own calendar.

Name	Anchored	At price	Horizon	90% band (p5–p95)	Grades on

From 27 July 2026 every new forecast is checked at 1 month and 3 months from the day it was published — real calendar dates. If that date is a weekend or a public holiday on that exchange, we check on the next day it actually trades. Nothing else moves it. The engine’s backtest measures the same calendar window we publish, instead of a fixed session count.

Each forecast gives a likely range. When its date comes, we see whether the real price landed inside that range, and keep a running tally. If our "9 times out of 10" ranges are honest, the price should land inside them about 90% of the time. The big tally above is the backtest record across every covered name’s resolved, non-overlapping 3-month windows; each study page carries its own name-level record.