Methodology
Every instrument passes through three independent lenses, then the results are reconciled — agreement raises confidence, divergence is published as-is.
Fundamental
Bottom-up: each project valued from its units (area × price/m² and cost/m²), rolled into full financial statements, then DCF and sum-of-the-parts with each project weighted by its execution probability. Output: a value range (bear / base / full execution) — never one number.
Technical
Three timeframes (weekly / daily / hourly): trend and structure, levels, moving averages, momentum (RSI/MACD), and the decisive referee — whether volume confirms the move or calls its bluff.
Monte Carlo
One model, 50,000 paths, 10 external factors: 5 continuous (policy rate, EGP/USD, inflation, market flows, oil) and 5 events with stated probabilities (geopolitics, sovereign inflows, launch execution, tourism, mortgage credit). Every assumption is a published, criticizable number — the table IS the model.
Why distributions, not price targets?
Because a single number is a comfortable lie. The future is a probability distribution, and whoever sells you certainty sells you an illusion. We publish the median, the bands, and level-touch probabilities — then measure our calibration in public: do the 90% bands actually contain reality 90% of the time?
Momentum-reading rule (educational)
Price rising while RSI stalls or falls = bearish divergence, momentum dying into strength. Price and RSI rising together = healthy trend. Price falling while RSI rises = seller exhaustion worth watching. Both falling together = healthy downtrend, don't catch the knife. Descriptive patterns for reading momentum — not signals to act on.
Disclosure & Disclaimer — read in full
Nature of this content. Everything published on this site is an educational valuation exercise and an expression of personal analytical opinion, based exclusively on publicly available information and on assumptions stated in the text and accompanying models. It is published free of charge, on a pre-set periodic schedule, to demonstrate methodology and invite scrutiny of it.
No advice, no recommendation, no solicitation. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, financial consultancy, securities analysis services, a recommendation, a rating, a price target, an offer, or a solicitation or invitation to buy, sell, hold or subscribe for any security. Nothing is directed at, or calibrated to, any reader's circumstances, and nothing should be acted on without independent verification and licensed professional advice.
No licensed activity. The preparer is not licensed or registered with Egypt's Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) or any other regulator; does not carry on financial consultancy, securities evaluation or analysis services, portfolio management, brokerage or promotion; manages no money; accepts no clients, fees, subscriptions or funds of any kind; and provides personalized advice to no one.
Position disclosure. The preparer holds a long position in PHDC, may hold positions in other instruments mentioned, and may increase, decrease or close any position at any time without notice. Content is prepared and published independently of any trading activity, on a pre-set schedule, and is not intended to — and must not be used to — influence the market price of any security.
Estimates and uncertainty. All valuations, scenarios, probabilities and levels are model outputs resting on explicit, subjective assumptions; they are illustrative, highly uncertain, and likely to prove wrong in material respects — which is exactly why they are presented as ranges and distributions: no single number should be relied on. Public and vendor data are believed reliable but not guaranteed; vendor-derived figures are flagged as such.
No liability. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the preparer accepts no liability for any decision made or not made, or any loss or damage of any kind, incurred by any person in reliance on any part of this site or its models.
Reader's responsibility. Anyone considering an investment decision should conduct their own independent assessment and consult a financial advisor licensed in their jurisdiction. If publication of material of this kind is restricted where you are reading it, do not rely on it.