Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Egypt's leading listed Islamic bank — FY25 profit +40% on a 44% ROE and a 17.2% cost base, with financing up 53% in a year. Four independent lenses cluster at EGP 53.8–56.3; weighted fair ~EGP 54.3, about 16% above the price — modestly undervalued, if the returns outlast the CBE's easing cycle.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE rate path and the sovereign carry, the pound, financing growth and credit seasoning, EGX flows, dividend-initiation and capital-increase headlines. Details in the methodology.