Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Aldar trades about 22% below our weighted central fair value — undervalued across every lens, though the tape has corrected ~29% and is consolidating. It is really a developer-holding-company: a listed build-to-sell business (Aldar Development, ~85% owned), a recurring mall-and-hotel portfolio anchored by the world’s most-visited Dubai Mall, an Egyptian arm (Aldar Misr, ~86%), international development, and ~AED 25bn of net cash. Record 2025 results — AED 80.4bn of sales, a AED 155bn backlog — yet the whole trades at a ~31% discount to the sum of its parts (a gross NAV near AED 17.6). The bull case (~AED 18.75) is that the discount compresses toward ~10% as the recurring portfolio is crystallised and a supportive anchor pushes capital return; the cautious case (~AED 11.08) is the discount staying wide as the Dubai cycle rolls over. What moves it is the multiple the market pays for the recurring portfolio and the direction of that NAV discount.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: US/Fed rates via the dirham peg, Dubai residential & off-plan absorption, DFM / foreign-flows beta, oil / GCC liquidity, population & golden-visa demand, the recurring retail-and-tourism trajectory and construction cost — plus event forces: backlog conversion / strong sales, Dubai-cycle re-rating / discount compression, a recurring-portfolio crystallisation, a Dubai-Holding buyback, a two-sided earnings surprise, a Dubai property correction, a Fed higher-for-longer shock, an Egypt macro/FX shock, and a regional risk-off. Details in the methodology.