Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Alpha Dhabi is a holding company, so we price what it owns. Four of its five biggest assets trade on the ADX every day — 31.6% of Aldar (worth AED 20.5 bn at market), 76.7% of NMDC Group (14.4 bn), 35.1% of PureHealth (8.6 bn) and 73.7% of NCTH (2.4 bn) — and the fifth, 51% of Trojan Construction, was priced by a real transaction when ADQ bought the other 49%. Add the rest of the audited book at carrying value and the whole holding is worth about AED 7.44 a share before any holdco discount, or ~6.32 at a standard 15% discount. The market pays AED 8.22 — a premium of roughly 10% over the undiscounted parts, which is the entire debate: it is a bet that the IHC deal pipeline and the fair-value-gain engine keep compounding book value faster than you could yourself. A consolidated cash-flow model says ~11.7 is possible once the working-capital build normalizes (we weight that lightly — it is a ceiling, not an anchor), look-through earnings say ~8.1, and the stated AED 2 bn dividend policy discounts to just ~4.6. The weighted central is ~7.30, about 11% below spot, after a year in which the shares already fell 33% and touched 6.84 during the spring Gulf war — which remains the live tail under every number on this page.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, carry-anchored: the drift is the 3M EIBOR (3.93%) with no ex-dividend date inside the window (the FY25 distribution was paid in Q1; the next lands ~Q1-27), so the median drifts gently up; the spread is the share’s own gap-aware volatility (annualized ~34%) after a provisional single-name UAE calibration — honestly flagged as provisional until a multi-name ADX panel exists. The forces the study reasons through are the Fed/CBUAE rate path, Abu Dhabi property & Aldar’s tape, IHC deal flow and the fair-value-gain engine, NMDC’s normalization, the DMTT tax glide, oil and the fiscal pulse, float/index mechanics — plus event forces: the Q2 results and the missing attributable split, a related-party transaction, a Fed surprise, buyback/distribution news, and the war regime itself. One honest caveat, stated in the study twice: the width was fitted through 3 Jul — a pre-re-escalation regime — so read the downside percentiles as floors on risk, not ceilings. Details in the methodology.