Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: at today’s 21.5% cost of capital the discounted cash flows are worth about EGP 3.8bn while the net debt against them is about EGP 9.8bn — so on the base case the equity is worth nothing, and is floored at zero only because a shareholder cannot owe more than the stake. What EGP 2.19 buys is an option on three things going right together: the receivables collecting, conversion margins recovering from the 1Q26 trough, and the CBE resuming its easing cycle. That’s the bet.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a hard-currency industrial exporter listed in a soft-currency market: the LME copper price, the EGP/USD path, the CBE policy corridor and the pace of easing, Egyptian inflation, Gulf and North African grid and infrastructure spending, the order book and its conversion rate, interconnector and data-centre demand for cable and transformers, energy and freight costs, convertibility and repatriation risk on the foreign earnings, and the free float — 11.6% of the shares, with 68% held by the family and 20% by Electra, which is what makes the tape thin. Full mechanics in the methodology.