Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Beltone is four platforms in one wrapper — Egypt’s fastest-scaling brokerage and largest non-bank asset manager, a fast-growing NBFI lender, a venture arm, and (from Q1-2026) Baobab, a pan-African microfinance bank bought from its own majority shareholder. Marked platform by platform the parts are worth ~EGP 3.00 a share before any fairness discount; at 2.97 the price pays for nearly all of it. The whole argument is whether the enlarged book lifts its return on equity from ~11% toward 18%.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE easing cycle (the master variable), the EGP and African currencies, EGX turnover and foreign flows, NBFI credit demand, Baobab integration costs, asset-quality shifts, index flows and the dilution overhang. Details in the methodology.