Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: a genuine growth story — bed capacity up 50% by 2027 — priced as if it were already a takeout. The rate-path DCF (EGP 7.17, at Egypt's sourced cost of capital) and the relative/EV-per-bed lenses (EGP 8.37–13.21) disagree by nearly 2× — the market's EGP 16.31 prices something closer to a strategic-review or per-bed transaction outcome than standalone cash-flow generation.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE rate path (25.15% → a norm-built 17.87% terminal), bed-capacity execution (880→1,320 beds by 2027), the ARP/volume ramp across CLHO’s disclosed revenue lines, the working-capital and receivables cycle, and a developing 2026–27 El Niño (96% NOAA probability) that could keep food inflation — and the CBE’s easing path — stuck. Details in the methodology.