Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: at today’s ~23.5% cost of capital the discounted cash flows are worth less than the debt already drawn against them, so the fundamental value sits well below the EGP 1.94 price. The equity is essentially a levered bet on the CBE’s easing cycle — lower rates lift the value fast; a stall leaves it stranded. That’s the bet.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 10 outside forces relevant to a dollar-exporting garment maker: the CBE policy rate, the EGP/USD rate, Egyptian inflation, the global cotton price, US and EU apparel-import demand, US tariff policy on Egyptian textiles, freight and energy costs, regional geopolitics affecting shipping lanes, the domestic minimum-wage / labour-cost path, and consumer spending on the domestic retail book. Full mechanics in the methodology.