Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Edita is Egypt’s snack-shelf machine — Molto croissants, Todo cakes, Bake Rolz, Freska and the HoHos/Twinkies/Tiger Tail brands it now owns across all of Africa, sold billions of packs a year through the deepest traditional-trade network on the exchange. The devaluation story is already paid for: revenue near-tripled since 2022, the balance sheet turned net-cash, and the shares six-folded. At 27.34 versus a weighted fair value of 27.68 the price is about right — the whole argument from here is whether the 34–35% gross margin survives the next move in the pound.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the pound and the CBE easing cycle (the master variables), soft-commodity input costs, consumer purchasing power and the price-point ladder, capacity ramp-up and utilization, export and HTT-Africa traction, dividend policy and index flows. Details in the methodology.