Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Egypt Aluminum is the country’s only primary-aluminium smelter — Nag Hammadi turns an administered electricity price into LME dollars, carries ~EGP 9bn of net cash, and in May 2026 signed a US$900m Trafigura partnership to roughly double capacity toward ~600 kt. Marked lens by lens the business is worth ~EGP 250 a share; at 286 the price pre-pays part of that doubling and a record FY25/26 close. The whole argument is whether the power contract holds and the financing actually signs.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the stock\'s own calibrated secular drift (the master variable), the LME aluminium price, the EGP, the industrial electricity tariff, EGX flows, alumina costs, CBAM, the Trafigura financing, the FY25/26 results and dividend, a possible MIH stake-sale, and global risk appetite. Details in the methodology.