Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: EMAARDEV trades about 21% below our weighted central fair value — modestly-to-clearly undervalued, though the tape has corrected ~30% from its AED 20 high and is consolidating. It is a near-pure Dubai build-to-sell developer, ~85% owned by parent Emaar Properties — the malls and hotels sit in the parent, not here. Record FY2025 — AED 71.1bn of sales at a ~56% pre-tax margin, an AED 125bn sold backlog, ~AED 20bn of net cash and a 100%-of-par dividend — with the value resting on an RNAV that adds net cash to the present value of that backlog and a haircut land bank, carrying no terminal value on the finite development legs. The bull case (~AED 22.76) is the Dubai cycle holding and the development margin normalising gently; the cautious case (~AED 12.88) is the 2026-27 supply wave arriving and the margin normalising faster than assumed. What moves it is the Dubai property cycle, the sustainable development margin and the net-cash mark — not a recurring-portfolio multiple.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: US/Fed rates via the dirham peg, Dubai residential & off-plan absorption, DFM / foreign-flows beta, oil / GCC liquidity, population & golden-visa demand, the 2026-27 supply / handover pipeline and construction cost / development margin — plus event forces: Q1-2026 results, a new master-plan launch / sell-out, strong backlog conversion, a Dubai supply / handover signal, a dividend / capital-return surprise, a land-acquisition / pipeline add, a rating action, a Dubai property correction, a Fed higher-for-longer shock, a regional risk-off, and index / flow rebalancing. Details in the methodology.