Question 1

What is the fair-value range for Emaar Misr (EMFD)?

Accepted Answer

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where EMFD could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

Question 2

How is the EMFD valuation calculated?

Accepted Answer

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a sum-of-the-parts / RNAV build for a real-estate developer — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Question 3

Does testahil recommend buying or selling EMFD?

Accepted Answer

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Question 4

Is the Emaar Misr model free to download?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The full EMFD valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Part of the business	Worth per share	How it's valued
Property + sold backlog	10.67	Project-by-project cash flow
Hotels (Marassi)	1.81	Profit × 6.5
Malls, marina, commercial	1.11	Profit × 7.5
Cash in the bank (parent's 98%)	+6.24	Balance sheet
Less: other owners' share	0.00	Negligible — wholly owned
Fair value (SOTP / RNAV)	19.84	+59% vs latest

Lens 1 · Fundamental — what is it worth?

Lens 2 · Technical — what is the chart doing?

Lens 3 · Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

From the written study

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