Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Telecom Egypt is the country’s fixed-line and fibre incumbent, the operator of the Suez subsea-cable corridor, the fourth mobile network (WE) — and the owner of 45% of Vodafone Egypt, whose profit contribution grew 71% last year. Marked part by part the pieces are worth ~EGP 139 a share before any discount; at 92.61 the market pays a ~33% discount to that sum. The whole argument is whether an excellent 2025 — revenue +31%, margin 45%, leverage down to 1.3× — plus approved 13–15% tariff rises finally shrink the wrapper discount toward the 15% we think is fair.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the EGX secular drift this name is calibrated to, the CBE easing cycle, the EGP (USD-linked wholesale revenue against FX losses), the NTRA tariff round, data demand, Vodafone Egypt momentum, capex intensity, the government-placement overhang, Red Sea subsea risk and index flows. Details in the methodology.