Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: eXtra is two businesses under one listing, so we value them separately and add them. The retail arm — Saudi Arabia's largest electronics and appliances chain — is thin-margin but highly cash-generative and net-cash; on its own cash flow (DCF) it is worth about SAR 65 a share. Tasheel, the 68.75%-owned captive lender that finances eXtra's own big-ticket sales, is worth about SAR 25 a share on its equity book — and though it is only ~7% of revenue it earns close to half of group profit, which is exactly why a single blended multiple misprices the whole. Add the legs and the sum-of-the-parts is ~SAR 90; a relative P/E cross-check sits at ~SAR 75; the weighted central is ~SAR 81, about 19% above a spot that has fallen to a 52-week low (RSI 27, a ~40% P/E discount to peer Jarir). The swing factors are the retail discount rate (a short-window beta of 0.55 versus a conservative 0.80) and the multiple on the finance book — and a well-covered ~7% dividend pays you to wait while the argument resolves.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, carry-anchored: the drift is the SAMA/Fed rate path against eXtra's ~7% dividend yield (the two are close, so the median is an explained flat), with the spread set by the Saudi-panel-fitted regime width. The forces the study reasons through are the rate path (financed demand + Tasheel's funding spread), non-oil GDP & Vision-2030 consumption, consumer-finance provisioning & regulation, e-commerce competition, the dividend signal, foreign flows and a momentum/mean-reversion tilt — plus event forces: a quarterly earnings surprise, a SAMA policy surprise, a dividend declaration, a provisioning/regulatory change and a regional event. Details in the methodology.