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Lens 3 · Monte Carlo — where could the price go?
| Percentile | p5 | p25 | p50 | p75 | p95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Was this cone honest historically? This name's calibration record →
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE rate path (re-rates the multiple and the float income both ways), growth & margin persistence, take-rate vs free InstaPay rails, foreign flows and the consumer-credit book. Details in the methodology.