Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: GB Corp confirmed in writing on 9 June 2026 that it owns 41.61% of MNT-Halan. Taken at the price of that company's latest funding round, that stake alone is worth roughly EGP 23 a share — worth about EGP 33 including the lending arm — which would leave almost nothing priced in for the car business itself. That's not a mistake in the numbers; it's a real question about whether the market trusts a private fintech's funding-round price as much as this study does. If you think the market's skepticism is fair, the car business plus lender alone is worth close to today's price. If you think the market hasn't caught up, there's real upside here.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 16 outside forces: the calibrated secular EGX-repricing drift (the calibration back-test-passed), Egyptian car demand, the CBE rate path, the EGP/USD rate, the Iraq/Jordan conflict, Chinese competition and grey imports, the Sadat localization ramp, lending-book funding costs — plus nine discrete events led by 2Q26 results (11 Aug), an MNT-Halan second closing, CBE cuts, a regional escalation, BYD's entry pricing and a devaluation tail. Full mechanics in the methodology.