Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: at EGP 6.43 the market pays about half of what the marked land bank and the signed partnership contracts are worth (~EGP 8.30). The bet is that those contracts — Madinet Masr, G Developments, Middle East — pay on schedule under a 72% state owner.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 16 forces: the central-bank rate, the EGP/USD rate, inflation, foreign money flows, oil, east-Cairo absorption, build-cost, plus nine event forces — H1 results, new partnership awards, a state stake-sale step, land auctions, dividends, regional risk, a devaluation step, a title/NUCA dispute and partner slippage. Full mechanics in the methodology.