Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: International Holding Company trades far above our weighted central fair value — on every fundamental lens the shares are worth a fraction of the market price. A look-through sum-of-the-parts of its stakes (Alpha Dhabi, NMDC, the merging Multiply/2PointZero/Ghitha, plus the unlisted IRH metals, RIQ and a vast private tail) lands near AED 120; a deliberately conservative operating DCF near AED 81; a peer-multiple read near AED 102; a normalized-earnings read near AED 91 — a blended centre near AED 105 against a price of AED 382. IHC trades at roughly 3.2× reconstructable NAV and ~5.5× attributable book, the inverse of the discount conglomerate holding companies usually carry. The premium is real and may persist — it reflects a thin, low-turnover float, sponsor and sovereign-ecosystem backing, index and passive demand, and a demonstrated capital-compounding record — but it is a premium a fundamental exercise cannot manufacture. What moves the price near-term is deal flow, the pending merger, index/flow support and the regional macro; what the study says is that the price pays for far more premium than any of our lenses will underwrite.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the Brent oil path, global oil demand and refining margins, SAMA/Fed rates via the riyal peg, US real rates, TASI flows, the base-dividend anchor and an oil-volatility regime — plus event forces: an OPEC+ decision, a geopolitical oil-supply spike, a global recession, a peg-stability tail, a Vision-2030 catalyst, a facilities attack, a dividend-policy change, an earnings print, and a government-take change. Details in the methodology.