Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Infosys trades well below our weighted central fair value — a quality compounder de-rated to a value multiple, but in a clear downtrend near its 52-week low. It is a single, focused business: a global IT-services and consulting franchise that is net-cash, converts more than 100% of profit to cash, earns a ~33% return on equity, and returned over ₹37,500 cr to owners in FY26. The market is pricing one real risk — that generative AI compresses the labour-arbitrage pyramid the whole industry is built on. The bull case (~₹1,556) is that Infosys cannibalises its own hours and keeps the margin while the discretionary-demand cycle recovers and the multiple re-rates; the cautious case (~₹995) is AI deflating pricing faster than it cuts cost. What moves it is where the GenAI-affected margin settles, not the balance sheet.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the US/EU IT-spending cycle, USD/INR, the GenAI pricing effect, the Fed path, India/EM equity flows, wage inflation and deal-TCV momentum — plus event forces: the Q1 FY27 result, a guidance revision, a GenAI pricing shock, a US-recession demand freeze, a mega-deal win, a buyback / special dividend, a visa / immigration shock, a sharp USD/INR move, and index / passive-flow rebalancing. Details in the methodology.