Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Ibnsina Pharma trades about 52% below our weighted central fair value — cheap on fundamentals, but priced for genuine Egyptian risk. A discounted-cash-flow on the distribution business lands near EGP 19.8 (the most optimistic lens, because it capitalises the margin-and-scale story into a terminal value), relative EV/EBITDA multiples near EGP 16.7 (the most grounded, anchored on what the market pays today for EBITDA), a normalized-earnings read near EGP 18.0, and a dividend-yield floor near EGP 11.0 — an EGP 11.0–19.8 cluster centred on ~EGP 17.8. Ibnsina Pharma is Egypt’s #1–2 pharmaceutical distributor: more than 35,000 customers, ~24% market share (IQVIA), revenue of EGP 76.6bn in FY25 at an ~8% gross and ~5% EBITDA margin, a ~1.2% net margin, and a near-zero cash-conversion cycle so growth is funded by suppliers rather than equity. The bull case (~EGP 22.7) is the net margin normalising as CBE rates ease and the drug-re-pricing cycle feeds through to margins; the cautious case (~EGP 12.9) is a razor-thin margin staying pinned by high finance costs and receivables risk. What moves it near-term is the CBE rate path, drug-re-pricing decisions, and each quarter’s margin print. One thing worth knowing about this name: Over 30 resolved three-month forecasts, the price finished inside the 90% band 77% of the time, against the 90% that band aims at — and inside the 80% and 50% bands 73% and 47% of the time. That is a shortfall with a plain meaning: the range was drawn too tight for this stock — price broke out more often than a 90% range should allow, the forecast more confident than its record justifies — so treat the published range as a floor on how far price can travel, not a ceiling.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: seven continuous — Egyptian pharma-market volume, drug re-pricing / inflation pass-through, the CBE policy-rate path (the finance-cost driver), the EGP/USD rate, EGX30 & foreign flows, the working-capital / supplier-credit cycle, and market share vs competition — plus nine event forces: a quarterly results print, a CBE rate cut, a further re-pricing round, a new supplier / distribution deal, an EGP devaluation step, a drug shortage / disruption, a dividend / capital action, a receivables / credit event, and an index rebalancing. Zero secular drift for a name whose the calibration back-test failed. Details in the methodology.