Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: the current business on cash and assets is worth about EGP 32–36 a share. The upside above that depends on the pound weakening and profit converting to cash. That's the bet.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 16 outside forces: the EGP/USD rate, energy (gas & diesel) costs, Egyptian construction and consumer demand, European and Gulf export demand, the central-bank rate, foreign money flows, and inflation, plus event risks including a devaluation step, an energy-price reset, a Red Sea freight shock, and the half-year results print. Full mechanics in the methodology.