Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: LG Energy Solution trades well above our weighted central fair value — about 25% above it — so the model reads it as modestly expensive, not cheap. It is the world's #3 EV-battery maker and a major energy-storage supplier, but its defining quirk is structural: the US production credits that make the group profitable flow mostly through North-American joint ventures with carmakers, so the parent's own shareholders were attributed a net loss in 2024 and 2025. A disciplined discounted-cash-flow value of the parent lands near ~KRW 146,000 — well below spot — and only mid-cycle EBITDA multiples or a full recovery get you back toward today's price. The bull case (~KRW 415,000, above spot) needs EV demand to stabilise, energy storage and the 46-series cylindrical line to scale, the US credit to be retained, and capital spending to normalise so the parent's earnings inflect positive; the cautious case (~KRW 150,000) is an AMPC cut plus a longer EV downturn. What moves it is the EV cycle and US tax policy — not current earnings, which are negative at the owner level.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: EV-battery demand & volumes, energy-storage & AI-data-centre demand, battery ASP / lithium pricing, cost-down & efficiency, the KOSPI beta, USD/KRW, and the 46-series cylindrical / robotics ramp — plus event forces: a major OEM or ESS supply win, an energy-storage / AI mega-order, an oversold bounce, an AMPC / IRA policy cut, an EV-demand shock, an earnings miss, a lithium-price spike, a Korea value-up / index-flow event, and a utilisation surprise. Details in the methodology.