Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: NVIDIA trades a few percent above our weighted central fair value (about $204) — roughly fairly valued, and priced on the durability of the AI data-center build-out rather than on today's earnings alone. It runs a net-cash balance sheet and earns a return on capital employed near 62% against a ~10.5% cost of capital, so the debate is not whether the returns are real but how many years the super-normal phase lasts. The bull case (~$287) is AI-infrastructure spend compounding toward ~$1tn a year while the runway extends and the multiple holds; the cautious case (~$147) is a broad AI-capex digestion or bubble scare with China Data Center still foreclosed by export controls. What moves it is the AI data-center capex path, the China export-control question, and customer concentration among a handful of hyperscalers.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the AI data-center capex cycle, hyperscaler capex guidance, semis/AI equity beta and Nasdaq flows, the gross-margin path as Blackwell gives way to Rubin, US 10-year real yields, USD and global liquidity, and a supply-chain regime (TSMC CoWoS / HBM) — plus event forces: a quarterly print versus the ~$91bn guide, a hyperscaler capex-guidance shift, a China export-control change, a Rubin ramp / supply-news event, an AI-capex-fatigue or bubble scare, a custom-silicon competitive win or loss, a major partnership or mega-order, a capital-return / buyback surprise, and an index / options-flow rebalancing. Details in the methodology.