Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Orascom Investment Holding trades at EGP 1.41 against a four-lens weighted fair value near EGP 0.78 — roughly −45% — so the market has already paid for the Pyramids, and the case for the price is a bull case, not a base case. The primary holding-company NAV, marking every asset at its audited value and putting a DCF on the Giza plateau concession, lands at EGP 0.81; a stricter consolidated DCF is EGP 0.48; only a normalized-earnings view of the concession at maturity (EGP 1.03) approaches the tape. What EGP 1.41 is paying for is three things the accountable books do not yet contain: the Pyramids platform at maturity rather than at its ramp-stage value, some recovery of the ~US$114m of cash trapped in North Korea beyond the 50% the auditors allow, and the Sawiris platform premium Egyptian retail money awards this counter. The chart, meanwhile, is strong — up ~74% in a year and consolidating just under the 50-day — so this is a valuation story fighting a momentum tape, not a cheap stock.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: tourism & GEM-driven Giza footfall, EGP/USD (OIH is net-long dollars), the CBE rate, EGX flows, the Pyramids concession ramp, a North-Korea repatriation event, the Koryolink loan, holdco-discount shifts, portfolio monetization, and earnings surprises. Details in the methodology.