Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: the world's largest machine-woven carpet maker — cheap-looking at 6.0× earnings and a 6.7% yield, but merely fair (~EGP 20.9): 58% cash conversion and margins standing on three policy crutches — the EGP, fading export rebates and US tariffs.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the EGP (each devaluation re-arms the margin), the export-rebate program, US tariffs on ~a third of sales, the working-capital cycle, polypropylene/oil costs and Red Sea freight. Details in the methodology.