Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Nakilat trades almost exactly on our weighted central fair value — an investment-grade, contracted LNG-infrastructure income stock priced close to the present value of its own charter book. A discounted-cash-flow on the in-place fleet lands near QAR 4.90 (the one lens above spot, because it alone capitalises the full ~20-year charter duration and the post-2030 deleveraging), a two-stage dividend-discount model near QAR 3.56, relative EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples near QAR 4.00, and a fleet-replacement NAV near QAR 4.06 — a QAR 3.56–4.90 cluster centred on ~QAR 4.29. Nakilat is the world’s largest LNG shipping company: ~69 carriers (29 wholly-owned, 40 in joint ventures) on 20–25-year time charters to QatarEnergy affiliates, a fleet expanding to 112 vessels from end-2026, ~QAR 4.0bn of consolidated charter revenue, a ~3.3% dividend yield and Aa3/AA− credit. The bull case (~QAR 6.40) is a lower discount rate plus newbuild accretion and charter extensions; the cautious case (~QAR 2.71) is a structurally higher rate on a bond-like stream. What moves it near-term is the rate path, the Strait-of-Hormuz tail risk, and each quarter’s charter-hire and dividend print.Over 58 resolved three-month forecasts, the price finished inside the 90% band 95% of the time, against the 90% that band aims at. The band is 1.13 times the width of a simple no-forecast rule’s — the price of covering this name honestly.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: seven continuous — global LNG-demand growth, charter-market tone, the US/global rate path (the discount-rate driver), Qatar Exchange index flows, the Brent/energy complex, the USD/QAR peg, and fleet utilisation — plus nine event forces: a quarterly results print, a North Field newbuild award/milestone, a dividend change, a charter renewal/extension, a rating/refinancing action, a Strait-of-Hormuz geopolitical event, a drydock/off-hire disruption, an index rebalancing, and a broad LNG-shipping market shock. Zero secular drift for a non-EGX name. Details in the methodology.