Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: QNB Group trades about 7% below our weighted central fair value — modestly cheap, with four independent bank lenses clustering tightly. A two-stage dividend-discount model on the actual payout lands near QAR 18.7, a distributable-capital (FCFE) build near QAR 20.2 (a full-capacity ceiling near QAR 22), relative P/B–RoTE multiples near QAR 18.2 and a through-cycle normalized-earnings read near QAR 17.6 — a QAR 17.6–20.2 cluster. QNB is the largest bank in the Middle East & Africa by assets (~QAR 1.39tn), ~50% owned by the Qatar Investment Authority, with best-in-class efficiency (a ~23% cost-to-income ratio) and asset quality (2.6% NPLs, 100% coverage) and a ~15% post-tax return on tangible equity. The bull case (~QAR 28.5) is a return of surplus capital, a stabilising Türkiye and a benign rate path; the cautious case (~QAR 14) is a deeper Fed/QCB cutting cycle that squeezes the margin plus a higher effective tax rate under Pillar Two. What moves it near-term is the rate path, the credit cycle in Türkiye/Egypt and the quarterly NIM and tax print.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the QCB rate path (Fed-linked, the NIM driver), hydrocarbon/sovereign liquidity, regional private credit, QE/MSCI passive flows, the pegged riyal, Türkiye (Finansbank) and Egypt (Alahli) translation, and the Pillar-Two tax drift — plus event forces: a quarterly earnings surprise, an oil-price regime shift, a Fed/QCB rate move, a sovereign-rating action, an asset-quality/ECL shift, an MSCI reweight, a capital-return surprise, a geopolitical shock, and a further Pillar-Two step. Zero secular drift for a non-EGX name. Details in the methodology.