Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Raya trades well above our weighted central fair value — the re-rating has run ahead of a conservative sum-of-the-parts, after a ~200% run over the past year. It is a holding company: most of its value is the operating stakes — above all Raya IT (RIT), which grew revenue 70% in FY2025, and Aman Holding, the fintech/NBFC arm that is roughly a third of the portfolio and which we value on a P/E — plus a large consumer-electronics distribution business (Raya Trade), a listed BPO (RACC) and seven smaller lines, on top of a layer of holding-company debt. The crux is the conglomerate discount — the market is applying close to zero, while our base case marks a modest 10%. The bull case, near ~EGP 8.22, is Aman at a full fintech multiple, RIT compounding and no discount; the cautious case, a consolidated cash-flow lens that deliberately ignores the asset marks, sits near ~EGP 4.77. What moves it is the direction of the discount, the Aman multiple, and whether RIT’s growth proves durable.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the EGX beta & foreign flows, Aman & RIT growth, consumer spending & digital adoption, EGP/USD translation, the CBE rate path, inflation, KSA/Gulf expansion and government digital-transformation capex — plus event forces: an Aman capital raise or IPO, RACC full-takeover completion, a major RIT contract award, an earnings surprise, a holdco-discount regime shift, an EGP step devaluation, a consumer-credit cycle at Aman, a competitive-disruption shock, and a geopolitical / regional-security flare. Details in the methodology.