Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: this is the largest cable and wire maker in Saudi Arabia — power, building and telecommunications cable — and a significant exporter into the Gulf, chiefly the UAE. It is a metal converter: copper and aluminium are about 95% of its cost of sales, so its gross margin is an OUTPUT of the metal price, not a stable input. The study builds it SEGMENT BY SEGMENT: the cables leg (98% of revenue) as a metal converter — a tonnage index priced as metal content on its own commodity path plus a conversion spread — and the small high-voltage turnkey and other legs on their own paths at their disclosed margins. The one number everything turns on is the gross margin the business sustains now that the 2024–25 metal tailwind has passed, and the study does not pick one — it computes it BOTH ways: on the reviewed first-half-2026 actual of 15.26% the cash-flow lens is worth SAR 127.91, on the 2025 full-year peak of 16.0% it is 139.60, and on a further squeeze to 14.5% it is 116.10. The four lenses land between SAR 86 and SAR 128 and weight to SAR 109, against a price of SAR 104.90.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a Saudi cable maker: London Metal Exchange copper and aluminium prices — about 95% of the cost of sales, hedged but not eliminated — Saudi grid and construction spending (the national electricity company’s capital programme, the giga-projects and housing) that drives domestic cable volume, the export share of roughly a quarter of sales into a tight Gulf market, the conversion spread the business earns per tonne, Saudi wage and utility inflation on the non-metal cost, and the riyal’s fixed parity to the dollar, which removes the currency channel from the dollar-priced metal. Full mechanics in the methodology.