Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: a compounding Egyptian pharma manufacturer, but the discounted-cash-flow lens (EGP 1.73, at Egypt's sourced cost of capital) and the market-multiple lenses (EGP 3.65–4.40) disagree by more than 2× — the market's EGP 5.00 is a bet that Egyptian rates normalise faster than the sourced curve says.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE facility-cost path (24.0% observed effective → a norm-built 15% terminal), NWC normalisation speed (66.4% → 54% of revenue), the EDA pricing regime unwinding, USD-linked API costs, and the risk of a further EGP step-devaluation — Egypt has devalued five times since 2016, several by 14–45% in a single move, so this is modelled as a recurring risk, not a rare one-off. Details in the methodology.