Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Samsung trades a little above our weighted central fair value, so the market is already paying for much of the AI-memory boom. The bull case — a durable supercycle, HBM4 wins and disciplined capacity — supports a path toward the ~KRW 411,000 upside scenario; the cautious case, anchored on after-capex owner cash flow and a normalized through-cycle margin, sits nearer ~KRW 215,000. What separates them is almost entirely memory: the direction of DRAM/NAND pricing and whether Samsung closes its high-bandwidth-memory gap with SK Hynix. The balance sheet is a real cushion — net cash of roughly KRW 119 trillion — but it does not protect the earnings, which are ~94% memory and therefore deeply cyclical.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 10 forces: DRAM/NAND memory pricing, USD/KRW, AI & data-centre capex, the KOSPI beta, smartphone & device demand, a memory-oversupply scare, an HBM4 / AI-allocation win, US tariff & export policy, a capital-return surprise, and labour disruption. Details in the methodology.