Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: EGP 79.00 buys a company whose one plant runs at about 71% of its kiln capacity and whose balance sheet holds EGP 4.9bn of net cash — 43% of the market value — against EGP 36.8mn of debt. Discount the cash the kiln can actually generate at Egypt’s 28.3% cost of capital, add the cash back, deduct minorities, and the four lenses average EGP 53.12. So the market is paying about EGP 6.5bn for an operating business the cash-flow lens values at EGP 6.6bn of enterprise value, and then paying again for the cash. The gap is not a claim that the plant is bad; it is a claim that at a 28% cost of money, a 3.8Mt grinding plant in a market with 76Mt of installed capacity against 54Mt of consumption — with 12.6Mt of mothballed military capacity being revived into it and the EU carbon border levy raising the cost of exporting the surplus from 2026 — is worth less than the tape says. The cash is the floor. The kiln is the question.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a single-plant cement producer in a structurally oversupplied market: Egyptian construction and housing starts, the pace at which roughly 12.6Mt of mothballed military-owned capacity is revived into a market already carrying 76Mt of capacity against 54Mt of consumption, domestic cement pricing and the ex-works discount to it, the EU carbon border mechanism and what it does to the landed cost of Egyptian clinker in Europe from 2026, delivered petcoke and coal prices, the industrial electricity tariff after subsidy reform, the EGP/USD path — which raises the cost of imported fuel and the pound value of export tonnes at the same time — the CBE policy corridor, which matters twice here because 43% of the market value is cash earning a deposit rate, and the thinness of the tape itself: this stock closes unchanged on nearly three sessions in ten. Full mechanics in the methodology.