Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: The Saudi National Bank trades about 16% below our weighted central fair value — modestly cheap, and unusually, four independent bank lenses converge on the same answer. A two-stage dividend model lands near SAR 44, a discounted-cash-flow (FCFF) build near SAR 45, relative multiples near SAR 46 and a sustainable-return justified price-to-book near SAR 47 — a tight SAR 44–47 cluster. SNB is the Kingdom’s national banking champion, formed from the 2021 NCB–Samba merger: ~SAR 1.26 tn of assets, the deepest low-cost (CASA) deposit base among covered banks, a 74%-fixed-rate investment book that protects gross yield as rates fall, and a 16%+ return on tangible equity at a sector-low cost-to-income. The bull case (~SAR 55) is durable margin resilience and a step-up in payout; the cautious case (~SAR 36) is a faster SAMA cutting cycle that squeezes the net interest margin and a persistent Türkiye / legacy international drag. What moves it near-term is the rate path and the quarterly NIM print.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the SAMA/Fed rate path (the NIM driver), oil and the fiscal impulse, Vision-2030 credit demand, the mortgage & retail cycle, TASI beta and passive flows, system liquidity, and inflation — plus event forces: a quarterly earnings surprise, a dividend/payout surprise, a SAMA/Fed policy surprise, a cost-of-risk shift, an oil-price shock, a geopolitical shock, a mortgage-policy change, an index-flow rebalance, and a capital action. Details in the methodology.