Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: stc Group trades close to our weighted central fair value of SAR 47.11 — a genuinely converged read across four independent lenses. The primary FCFF DCF lands highest at SAR 50.12 (a five-year forward build discounted at the company's WACC); the dividend discount model (SAR 45.88) and relative EV/EBITDA multiples (SAR 47.21) sit almost exactly on the current price; the through-cycle normalized-earnings floor (SAR 43.29) is a touch below spot. This is Saudi Arabia's dominant integrated telecom operator — near-91%-equity-financed, with net debt/EBITDA near 0.3x — where the swing factor is the dividend-cover math: free cash flow covers the dividend about 0.93x at the base FY26E capex plan (~16.5% of revenue) for the 5G/FTTH build-out, tightening to roughly 0.86x at the top of capex guidance. The bull case (~SAR 59) is that capex intensity eases while CBU ARPU keeps compounding; the bear case (~SAR 36) is that capex stays elevated while competitive intensity caps ARPU growth. What moves it near-term is the SAMA/Fed policy-rate path (the discount-rate channel) and the pace of the 5G/FTTH build.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the SAMA/Fed policy-rate path (the discount-rate channel), KSA consumer (CBU) ARPU & data-monetization trend, 5G/FTTH capex intensity (the dividend-cover swing), consumer-spending growth, the SAR/USD peg carry, sector-multiple drift, and the international-subsidiary drag — plus event forces: a quarterly earnings surprise, a regulatory or spectrum-fee action, a sovereign-rating pass-through, a TASI/MSCI index-rebalance flow, a spectrum-auction or capex-commitment surprise, an international-subsidiary event, a one-off monetization item, a competitive-intensity/price-war shock, and a dividend policy step-up. Details in the methodology.