Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

In plain terms: Tesla trades far above our weighted central fair value — richly valued on the operating businesses, with almost the entire premium resting on the autonomy bet. It is best read as an operating company — a profitable EV maker, a fast-growing energy-storage business, and a small services arm — wrapped around a large option on autonomy and robotics (Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi and Optimus) whose cash flows do not yet exist. On operating cash flows and earnings the business is worth roughly USD 90–230 a share; the bull case (~$560, the top of the sum-of-the-parts) needs Robotaxi and Optimus to scale into large, high-margin businesses, while the cautious case (~$103) is autonomy stalling as the multiple de-rates. What moves it is how likely, how large and how soon the autonomy businesses become real — an outcome the market observes only through the price.

Key levels

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental value.

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: FSD/Robotaxi monetization, delivery volumes, auto ASP/margin, energy-storage growth, Nasdaq/high-beta flows, US real rates and input costs/FX — plus event forces: a Robotaxi/unsupervised-FSD milestone, a quarterly delivery print, a quarterly earnings/margin print, Optimus progress, a China demand/price-war shock, an EV-credit/tariff/FSD-probe policy event, a key-person/governance event, a broad Nasdaq risk-off, and an energy megadeal. Details in the methodology.