Ticker Picker — can it get there in time?
Every covered stock has two published objects: a fair value from its ground-up study, and a simulated price range from its calibrated Monte Carlo. This page reads them together and asks one question the two cannot answer alone: is the fair value even reachable within 1 or 3 months, given how much this stock actually moves?
The answer is often no — and that is the point. A stock 70% below our fair value cannot close that gap in a month no matter how right the study is; a stock 6% below can. This page sorts the coverage by reachability, not by headline upside — because at short horizons, the two rankings are nearly opposite.
Sets the default order below; click any column heading to override it for a one-off sort.
Rank by / Then by set the standing order: rows sort by the primary field first (Reachability is the default), then by the secondary field wherever the primary ties (P(touch fair value) is the default) — so out of the box the order is best-reachability first, ties broken by higher P(touch), and setting the secondary to Gap % instead breaks those same ties by upside. Click any column heading for a one-off sort instead — it becomes the new primary for that click, the secondary dropdown still applies underneath it. P(touch) is the simulated chance the price trades through the fair value at any point before the horizon, from the same 50,000-path simulation published on each ticker page — rows with no meaningful probability (beyond 4σ, a dash) always sort to the bottom regardless of direction. "already there" means spot is already within this stock's own noise of fair value, so touching it is essentially guaranteed by definition — the simulation's exact number for those rows can land below 100% for a real but uninteresting reason (it only checks daily closes, not every instant in between), so we don't show a number that would just invite "why not 100%?" for no informational gain. Stale flags a fair value older than 6 months, due for re-study.
What the bands mean
The distance from price to fair value is measured in each stock's own typical movement (its published simulation width, σ), not in percent — a 15% gap is nothing for a stock that swings 16% a month and enormous for one that swings 7%.
IN-REACH within 1σ — closing the gap is an ordinary move for this stock at this horizon.
STRETCH 1–2σ — possible, but it would need a catalyst, not just drift.
OUT-OF-REACH 2–4σ — not a 1–3 month proposition; the thesis, if right, plays out on quarters.
NOT EXPRESSIBLE beyond 4σ — this horizon cannot carry the thesis at all; the probability is suppressed rather than shown as a misleading 0%.
The pattern worth knowing: the biggest bargains are usually the slowest. Names 40–70% below our fair value sit 3–6σ away — their case, if right, needs years. The names that can actually pay within a quarter are the ones a few percent from fair value. Ranking by upside and ranking by reachability are nearly inverse; this page ranks by reachability and shows the upside beside it.
Where the numbers come from
Everything on this page is arithmetic on objects already published elsewhere on this site: the fair values from each name's valuation study (bear / base / bull, struck on the study's own date) and the price distributions from each name's calibrated simulation (the same cones, quantiles and touch machinery as the ticker pages, seed and all). Nothing is re-estimated here, and this page never feeds back into the engine — the simulation stays deliberately blind to the fair values it is being read against, so a wrong valuation can never contaminate a calibrated cone. Full procedure, invariants and the falsification plan: methodology.
Prices and cones are as of each name's own published anchor date, shown per row. The table regenerates whenever coverage rolls forward — it is a generated surface, like the feed and the sitemap.