What is the fair-value range for Abu Kir Fertilizers (ABUK)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where ABUK could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the ABUK valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a sum-of-the-parts / RNAV build for a real-estate developer — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling ABUK?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the Abu Kir Fertilizers model free to download?

Yes. The full ABUK valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Abu Kir Fertilizers (ABUK) — is the stock worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

What it's worth

The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.

Lens / part	Per share (EGP)	How it's valued
Operating business (DCF)	EGP 54bn	5-yr operating cash flow
+ Investments & associates	EGP 6bn	carrying value
+ Net cash	EGP 16bn	balance sheet
Sum-of-the-parts (primary)	60	operating + cash
Mid-cycle EBITDA × 5.5x	57	the floor
Relative P/E	72	the ceiling
Fair value (weighted)	60	−11% vs latest

Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MADaily close · last 500 sessions to 17 Jun 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: the operating fertilizer plants are worth ~EGP 54bn; add ~EGP 16bn net cash and ~EGP 6bn of investments and equity is ~EGP 60 a share. Far more cash than debt. The whole argument is whether subsidised gas holds — and the ~9–10% dividend pays you to wait.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR).	~3.4 (5.0%)
Where our case breaks	below ~50

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the gas-feedstock cost (the dominant swing), the EGP, global urea/ammonia prices, rates, inflation, foreign flows, dividend policy and gas-supply interruptions. Details in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 17 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.