What is the fair-value range for Talaat Moustafa Group (TMGH)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where TMGH could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the TMGH valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a sum-of-the-parts / RNAV build for a real-estate developer — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling TMGH?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the Talaat Moustafa Group model free to download?

Yes. The full TMGH valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Talaat Moustafa (TMGH) — is the stock worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

What the company is made of

Three businesses, each valued its own way; minority and net cash adjusted.

Part of the business	Worth per share	How it's valued
Property + sold backlog	89.05	Project-by-project cash flow
Hotels (9 owned)	23.59	Profit × 6.5
Malls, schools, clubs	15.16	Profit × 7.5
Cash in the bank (parent's share)	+31.40	Balance sheet
Less: other owners' share	−12.06	Per segment
Fair value	147.12	+54% vs latest

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MADaily close · last 500 sessions to 17 Jun 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: cash, sold backlog, hotels and malls give a ~EGP 84 floor. Upside is new launches (SouthMED, The Spine, Noor) and the Gulf projects. More cash than debt — unusually safe for a developer.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier.	2.49 (2.6%)
Where our case breaks	below ~83.6

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 10 forces: rates, EGP/USD, inflation, foreign flows, oil/Gulf liquidity, politics, the Gulf projects, launches, tourism, mortgages. Details in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 17 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.