Orascom Construction
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth, five ways
A contractor is worth the cash its projects throw off plus its separable assets — concessions, the BESIX stake, materials and usable net cash; five lenses triangulate to a weighted central figure.
| Valuation lens | Worth per share | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF — primary | 1,006 | Going-concern cash flow + net cash |
| SOTP — base | 1,030 | Separable assets, conservative marks |
| SOTP — bull | 1,272 | Separable assets, premium marks |
| Relative multiples (blended) | 898 | EV/EBITDA & P/E vs peers |
| Normalized earnings power | 740 | Through-cycle, ex one-offs |
| Weighted central fair value | 928 | +29% vs latest |
The whole case rests on net-cash quality and the OCI Global combination, not the chart. The bull (full net cash credited, the parts re-rated) reaches EGP 1,272; the conservative through-cycle earnings lens anchors the low end at EGP 740. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Orascom Construction trades at EGP 720 against a five-lens weighted fair value near EGP 928 — roughly +29% — but the upside is conditional, not automatic. Two things, not the discount rate, decide whether it is cheap: how much of the reported ~$540m net cash is genuinely distributable rather than client advances and bonding (we haircut it to ~$400m), and whether the OCI Global combination completes. The bull (full net cash credited and the parts re-rated) reaches ~EGP 1,272; the conservative through-cycle earnings lens anchors the low end near ~EGP 740. The backlog is over five times the market cap and the US arm is the fastest-growing piece — but the chart has run eight-fold and is consolidating, so this is a balance-sheet-quality and deal-completion story, not a momentum one.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 15.1 (2.1%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~91 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the Egypt/Gulf & US construction cycles, EGP/USD, input-cost inflation, EGX flows, backlog conversion, the OCI Global combination, receivables & working-capital swings, concession ramp, and earnings surprises. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 29 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.