Palm Hills Developments
Spot EGP () · risk-adjusted fair value 15.89 · scenario range 7.62 – 24.92
Probability distribution — 50,000 paths, 10 factors
One Monte Carlo model driven by 10 external factors (policy rate, EGP/USD, inflation, foreign flows, oil, geopolitics, Ras El-Hekma sovereign inflows, launch execution, tourism, mortgage credit). Details in Methodology.
Reading it: the first month is close to a coin-toss (28% of paths below 14.11); the three-month view skews right — 40% of paths at or above 17.50 — because the launch and sovereign-inflow events fall in that window.
Level-touch probabilities
| Level | Within 1M | Within 3M |
|---|
Probability the price touches the level at least once within the horizon — a descriptive output of the simulation.
Technical levels
| Type | Levels |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 15.55 · 15.90 · 16.08 |
| Support | 14.85 · 14.30 · 13.90 |
| Daily ATR(14) | 0.60 |
| Rebuild boundary | 13.40 |
Below 13.40 the market would price the company beneath the "no new launches ever" scenario — the level at which this study itself gets rebuilt.
Value range (execution scenarios)
Left: bear 7.62 (contracted portfolio only, zero new launches). Middle: risk-adjusted base 15.89. Right: full execution 24.92. Gold dot: spot — today the market pays for the contracted business plus modest partial execution.
Full study and open model
The study (Word) + the complete Excel model: every assumption editable. Found a flaw? Attack the model.
Download study (DOCX) Download model (XLSX)