Commercial International Bank
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth, five ways
A bank is worth its book value plus the present value of the returns it earns above its cost of equity; five lenses triangulate to a weighted central figure.
| Valuation lens | Worth per share | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Justified P/B — base (primary) | 125.30 | ROE vs cost of equity |
| Excess-return DCF (explicit) | 90.86 | Discounted excess returns, with the fade |
| Dividend-discount (2-stage) | 104.33 | Distributed cash only |
| Relative multiples (blended) | 120.70 | P/B & P/E vs peers |
| Normalized earnings power | 114.70 | Through-cycle, ex-ECL release |
| Weighted central fair value | 123.30 | −5% vs latest |
The whole case rests on the spread between a ~30% return on equity and a ~24% cost of equity. The bull (spread holds or widens) reaches EGP 169.7; the explicit excess-return DCF (spread fades without capital return) anchors the downside at EGP 90.9; a deeper stress (ROE ≈ cost of equity) sits near EGP 53. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: CIB earns a ~30% return on equity against a ~24% cost of equity, and the whole equity case is the durability of that ~6-point spread — not the chart. The base case (justified price-to-book) is ~EGP 125, a touch below today's price, so the stock is roughly fairly valued on the returns it makes now. The bull (the spread holds or widens, and excess capital is returned) reaches ~EGP 170; the explicit excess-return DCF, where the spread fades because the bank keeps over-retaining capital, anchors the downside near ~EGP 91. The two swing factors are the sovereign carry — roughly half the balance sheet is government securities — and whether management returns capital or hoards it.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 2.17 (1.7%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~91 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the real-rate & net-interest-margin path, EGP/USD, inflation, foreign flows, the sovereign carry, the IMF/policy track, credit migration, capital return, and earnings surprises. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 29 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.