Orascom Development
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What the company is made of
Development, hospitality and recurring income, each valued its own way; minority and net debt adjusted.
| Part of the business | Worth per share | How it's valued |
|---|---|---|
| Development projects + backlog | 35.90 | Project-by-project cash flow |
| Hotels (El Gouna, Taba — Address, Vida) | 14.22 | Profit × multiple |
| Recurring (town mgmt, marina, retail) | 5.64 | Profit × multiple |
| Less: net debt | −1.95 | Balance sheet |
| Less: other owners' share | 0.00 | Negligible — wholly owned |
| Fair value (SOTP / RNAV, risk-adj.) | 53.79 | +37% vs latest |
A whole-company discounted cash flow (EGP 63.56) and trading multiples corroborate this sum-of-the-parts; the four-method synthesis centres on ~EGP 55.8. Full detail and the four lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: the committed backlog, the delivered El Gouna and O West communities, the owned hotels and the recurring town-management income underpin a bear-case ~EGP 22.5 floor — which, on these (derived) inputs, sits well below today's price. The upside is the El Gouna land bank: the discount to a bottom-up RNAV is, overwhelmingly, the market ascribing almost nothing to the unlaunched El Gouna and Red Sea land. Unlike most EGX developers, ORHD's USD-linked hotel and town income makes a weaker pound a partial tailwind rather than a headwind, and the balance sheet sits close to net-cash.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 1.41 (3.6%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~22.5 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 10 forces: rates, EGP/USD, inflation, foreign flows, oil/Gulf liquidity, politics, the Byoum & El Gouna land story, launches, North-Coast season, mortgages. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 25 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.