Emaar Misr
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What the company is made of
Three businesses, each valued its own way; minority and net cash adjusted.
| Part of the business | Worth per share | How it's valued |
|---|---|---|
| Property + sold backlog | 10.67 | Project-by-project cash flow |
| Hotels (Marassi) | 1.81 | Profit × 6.5 |
| Malls, marina, commercial | 1.11 | Profit × 7.5 |
| Cash in the bank (parent's 98%) | +6.24 | Balance sheet |
| Less: other owners' share | 0.00 | Negligible — wholly owned |
| Fair value (SOTP / RNAV) | 19.84 | +59% vs latest |
A whole-company discounted cash flow (EGP 21.98) and trading multiples corroborate this sum-of-the-parts; the four-method synthesis centres on ~EGP 19.5. Full detail and the four lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: cash, the sold backlog, the Marassi hotels and the malls add up to a ~EGP 13.7 floor — which, on these (derived) inputs, sits just above today's price. The upside is the newer launches (Belle Vie, Soul) and the Marassi Red Sea JV. Far more cash than debt — unusually safe for a developer.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.53 (4.3%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~13.71 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 10 forces: rates, EGP/USD, inflation, foreign flows, oil/Gulf liquidity, politics, the Marassi Red Sea / land story, launches, North-Coast season, mortgages. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 17 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.