Gold
Fundamental — what it's worthreal-rate model
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What underpins the value
A commodity has no balance sheet — four lenses bound a fair-value zone instead.
| What sets the value | Reference | How it's read |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst-consensus anchor | ~4,800 | Reuters 30-analyst 2026 median |
| Structural supply/demand | record | CB 863t · demand >5,000t · largest reserve asset |
| Mining cost floor | ~1,400–1,600 | far below spot — non-binding |
| Real-rate carry | near-term cap | hawkish Fed · DXY >100 |
| Fair-value zone (centre) | 4,600 | +15% vs latest · zone 4,200–5,000 |
The consensus anchors the level, the structural bid underpins it, cost is a distant floor, and real-rate carry sets the near-term tilt. Spot ~$3,990 sits ~5% below the zone technical support. Full detail and the four lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: gold pays nothing and has no cash flows, so its value rests on the published analyst consensus (a Reuters poll of 30 analysts centres on ~$4,800 for 2026) and the strongest structural demand in its modern history — record 2025 demand above 5,000 tonnes, central banks buying 863 tonnes, and gold now the largest reserve asset by value. Spot ~$3,990 sits about 5% below the $4,200–5,000 consensus zone after a ~29% correction. The near-term cap is rising real rates and a firm dollar; the floor is the structural central-bank bid.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | $108 (2.7%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~3,500 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 11 forces: real US 10-year yields, the dollar index, the Fed path, central-bank/official-sector demand, ETF & investment flows, geopolitical shocks, central-bank buying surprises, monetary-policy surprises, fiscal/debasement stress, a positioning/ETF unwind, and an ETF resurgence. Details in the methodology.
More metals coverage
Gold is the senior monetary metal — valued on consensus and structural demand, not against a higher metal.
All Metals → Silver → Library →About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 25 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.