What are the odds — and how much?
Pick a stock. For the next month and the next three months, we split every simulated outcome into four plain buckets: a big win, a small win, a small loss, and a big loss — with the chance of each and roughly how much it means in money. It's read straight off the same 50,000-path simulation behind every study, not a new prediction.
It is not a call. Nothing here says buy, sell, or hold — it's the odds already published for this name, organised around the two questions an investor actually asks: how much could I make, and how much could I lose.
The odds for this name Simulation
We call a move of 10% or more "big" and anything smaller "small" — the same round cut-off used in the odds box on our homepage. The four chances in each column always add to 100%: between them they cover every place the 50,000 simulated paths could end up.
"How much" for the big-win and big-loss rows is the study's own rare-case figure (95th / 5th percentile). The two middle rows are ranges; where the single most likely outcome (median) falls inside one, we say so.
Thinking about a mix of names rather than one? See the odds for a whole portfolio →
What we already published for this name
Size a positionposition-sizing calculator
Already decided you'd take a position? Size it.
The rest of this page is a separate tool for a separate moment — after you've weighed the odds above, working out how many shares a specific risk budget actually buys. Start by setting a portfolio size and how much of it you'd accept losing on this one position, then pick which published level would tell you you were wrong.
This single choice drives everything below it. A level close to today's price means a small loss per share, so the arithmetic allows more shares — and it also means ordinary noise can reach it. A level far away means the opposite. Every option here is a number already published on this name's study page; the percentage is its distance from the last close.
Nothing is stored or sent anywhere — the arithmetic runs in your browser.
The arithmetic
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And if it goes the other way
Same position, measured against a level above today's price. The ratio is just the distance up divided by the distance down — it says nothing about how likely either is. For that, the published touch odds are in the next section.
What the simulation says about getting there Simulation
Out of 50,000 simulated paths, the share that touch each price at any point before the horizon — not where the price ends up, but whether it gets there along the way. These are the published ladders from this name's study, unedited. Levels you selected above are highlighted where they line up with a published rung.
The ladder is published at fixed rungs, so the odds shown next to your chosen levels are for the nearest published rung, named explicitly rather than interpolated. Where a level sits between rungs, read it as a bracket, not a point estimate.
What this can't tell you
The arithmetic assumes you can leave at the level you chose. Real exits gap through levels, especially on thin EGX small-caps and around results — a position sized to lose 2% can lose considerably more if the price opens below your level rather than trading down to it. Prices here are the last close in each study, not live quotes, and the study date is shown above; anything that has happened since is not in these numbers.
Sizing arithmetic is also not a view. A tight level produces a large share count on this page whether or not the case is any good — the calculation cannot distinguish a well-founded idea from a poor one, and a bigger number here is not more confidence. The fundamental work that would tell you whether the case holds is in the study itself, and the record of how often our published ranges have actually contained the price is in the public ledger, right and wrong alike.
Educational tooling and personal analytical opinion — not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a suggestion to take any position. Full disclaimer.