testahil?is it worth it?

The Public Ledger

In a market that deletes its bad calls, we grade our own homework in public. Every distribution is published with its date and stays here forever. When the resolve date comes, the realized price goes next to the forecast — inside the band or outside it, no excuses, no deletions.

PublishedInstrumentHorizonMedianBandOutcome

Scoring method: we check whether the realized price fell inside the published band, and track the cumulative hit rate. A well-calibrated model's 90% bands should contain reality roughly 90% of the time — more means the bands are too wide, less means overconfidence. Finer accuracy scores (CRPS) come later.