Silver
Fundamental — what it's worthreal-rate model
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What underpins the value
A commodity has no balance sheet — five lenses bound a fair-value zone NOW instead (undated; the dated 1/3/12-month odds are above).
| What sets the value | Reference | How it's read |
|---|---|---|
| Gold-silver ratio (primary) | ~65 | gold ÷ long-run ratio ≈ spot |
| Analyst-consensus anchor | ~78 | Reuters 30-analyst 2026 median $79.5 |
| Structural supply/demand | deficit | 6th straight deficit · ~800 Moz drawn since 2021 |
| Mining cost floor | ~25–31 | primary-producer AISC — non-binding |
| Real-rate carry | near-term cap | hawkish Fed · DXY >100 |
| Fair-value zone (centre, now) | 68 | +9% vs latest · zone 58–78 |
The gold-silver ratio and the consensus anchor the level, the deficit underpins it, cost is a distant floor, and real-rate carry sets the near-term tilt. Spot ~$62 sits in the lower half of the $58–78 zone. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: silver pays nothing and has no cash flows, so its value rests primarily on the gold-silver ratio (~64× today: at the long-run average silver is worth ~$65, essentially spot) and the analyst consensus (~$78–$86 for 2026), cross-checked against a sixth-straight structural deficit that has drawn ~800 Moz from stocks since 2021. Fair value NOW is a zone of $58–$78 (centre ~$68), with spot ~$62 in its lower half after a halving from a January all-time high near $121. The near-term cap is rising real rates, a firm dollar and record solar thrifting; the upside is ratio compression and a gold reversion.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | $3.48 (5.6%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~45 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 11 forces: real US 10-year yields, the dollar index, the gold price & gold-silver ratio, industrial/solar demand, investment & ETF flows, geopolitical shocks, a physical squeeze / inventory shock, official-sector buying, a positioning/ETF unwind, solar substitution acceleration, and a deficit re-acceleration. Width is sized by the YZ-HAR engine (diffusion drift OFF for a metal); Student-t(5) tails. Details in the methodology.
More metals coverage
Gold is the senior monetary metal — valued on consensus and structural demand, not against a higher metal.
All Metals → Silver → Library →About this series & how we build these
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Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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Edition: 25 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.